Luckily, this storm is rolling in just the way we need it, starting warm and hopefully finishing cold, if the forecast is correct. Since there is little to no base over most of the mountain this wet dense snow is just what the doctor ordered to spackle in and stick to everything and cover it up for the rest of the season. The temperatures are forecast to drop overnight tonight while the precipitation intensifies, dropping as many as 9-13 inches at lake level around Tahoe City by Saturday morning with snow forecast to continue intermittently through Tuesday. I’d recommend dusting off the powder boards and maybe even throwing a coat of wax on ‘em, it looks like winter has finally arrived…

As we head into the next week I would also urge the use of caution. This is, quite literally, the first major storm of the season. While the snow should be piling up quickly it is important to remember what the mountains looked like a few days ago. Its pretty obvious that people are powder starved and chomping at the bit to get out shred, so have fun and be safe, there’s still a lot of season left to enjoy….

-Jeremy Benson

Conditions were right on the edge of what’s safe and what’s not.  I think it really pushed all of the skiers and riders in the Banzai on Beaver Bowl to their highest performance.  At that level of terrain and challenging conditions, I think it brought out the absolute best in all the skiers.  Everybody had to ski as hard as they possibly could.

Unfortunately, I missed the second stop of the Banzai Tour.  I was out at the Winter X Games and World Championships for Ski Cross.  So, coming into the last stop, I was excited and really wanted a chance to go against Daron Rahlves in the super final, and got off to a good day in qualifying, coming in second.

It was nice and sunny on qualifying day, and then, come race day, somebody invited all the fog and a nice snow storm in.  It was quite amazing racing;  four skiers at a time down a moguls run with white-out conditions.  I found it rather exciting and one of the more unusual and extreme races I have ever done in my life.

I had a great day going, won all my heats, and came into my final round.  It was time to put the best run I had out there.

I got off to a good start, but then got tangled up in the first corner, and, from there, just battled my way back through and was able to come down in third place – a little disappointed.

I really wanted a chance to make it into the super final, but nothing to put your head down about.  I got third place.

I want to thank Daron Rahlves for an amazing series, and I can’t wait for the series to get off again next year.  Hopefully, we’ll kick it off again at Alpine Meadows – Beaver Bowl Banzai 2012.

We start Sunday Night with a fast moving storm that will bring 10-15 inches to the mountain.  Things should clear out pretty quickly on Monday with sun and a fresh blanket of powder and highs in the 30′s on the mountain.

Next storm is about 36 hours behind this one and ready to move in Tuesday night.  This storm is stronger and should bring a decent snowfall to the mountain.  Models are averaging enough liquid for 12-18 inches of snow on the mountain, with some models showing enough to bring us 2 feet.  This storm will last into the day on Wednesday before clearing out.

The storms over the past couple of weeks have been a little mild.  This is due to the location of the ridge up near Alaska leaving the Pacific wide open for storms to come across the middle and pick up warm moisture before hitting the Pacific NW.  We have been on the south side (warm side) of the storms where a weak cold front gets dragged through as the storms head east.  This storm pattern will change on Thursday.

A ridge will begin to build out around 150-160w and will expand northward.  This will begin to push the storms up towards Alaska and then down the West Coast.  The trough along the West Coast will dig deeper and that will bring a return of colder weather by this weekend and into the following week.  That means a return to highs in the 30′s on the mountain.

The first cold storm is arriving on Friday and could move slowly inland over the weekend.  Right now next weekend looks like a cold and snowy one.  Some models showing several inches in a snow-showery pattern and others, like the one in the picture, are showing several waves of moisture that could bring a couple of feet.

The colder pattern looks to continue into week two and beyond as the ridge stays out in the Western Pacific.  We should continue to see storms dropping down the West Coast into California.  The difference in March is that a cold pattern is highs in the 30′s & 40′s with a stronger sun as compared to the 20′s & 30′s with a weaker sun in previous months.  So when it’s not snowing it will still feel pretty nice outside.  The cooler temps will aid in keeping the above average snowpack in place into April.  BA

There will be a lull in the action this evening before part 2 of the storm moves in overnight as the cold front approaches.  The heaviest should snow should occur during the morning hours on Monday and snow showers should last most of the day.  Expected additional snow totals by Monday night of 6-9 inches at the base and 9-12+ inches on top.  Storm totals by the Tuesday morning snow report should be around 20-26+ inches.

A ridge will build in behind the storm keeping us dry and warmer Tues-Thurs with temps up into the 40′s by Wednesday.  As that ridge slides east it will be replaced by a flatter ridge out in the Pacific around 140w.  Since the ridge is not quite far enough west it will keep the next couple of storms just to our north and we are on the southern edge.  That will bring a shot of colder air and a chance of light snow Thursday night and Saturday night.

The ridge may then retrograde back a little further west allowing a storm to dig and bring us a bigger storm on Monday the 14th.  There is another storm heading our way around the 18th but the models are trying to build a ridge in the East Pacific.

Looking at the teleconnections, they are not looking as favorable after mid-month.  The PNA has already gone positive over the past few days which may be why the ridge is so flat this week.  The forecast is for the PNA to stay slightly positive and the AO & NAO to trend towards negative.  That could mean the end of our storm train after mid-month but not necessarily the end of our storms.  BA

Looking at the models over the past few days they continue to bring in less precip for the warm part of the storm this weekend.  There is a long subtropical tap stretching all the way back to Hawaii that will be pushed into Northern CA by the low spinning in the Gulf of Alaska tonight.  By the time the moisture is pushed into Tahoe Saturday afternoon the subtropical tap of warm moisture will be cut-off from the storm.  We will see light amounts of snow on the mountain Saturday night through Sunday night above the base.  Right now it looks like about 4-8 inches of snow from mid-mountain up during this first part of the storm.

Then Sunday night the cold front approaches and pushes through Tahoe by Monday morning.  This will drop snow levels below the base and bring a heavy burst of snow along with it, with snow showers behind it for most of the day on Monday.  Currently it looks as if we could see around 4-8 inches at the base and an additional 8-12 inches on top.  This will be some colder snow on top of the wetter stuff from the weekend very similar to what we just had with the last storm.  Storm totals by the Tuesday morning snow report should be close to this last storm as well in the 10-20 inch range.

Starting Tuesday, there will be a ridge off the coast blocking storms and bringing nice weather for a few days.  Then that ridge pushes east as another ridge sets up around 140w in the Central Pacific by the end of next week.  This will open back up the storm door to some colder storms coming down the east side of the ridge.  The location of the ridge at 140w would mean we will get a series of cold but smaller storms.

There are going to be quite a few storms coming across the Pacific from next weekend and beyond so the pattern of a storm every other or every couple of days looks to continue from the 11th through the 20th.  Around the 16th the ridge may retrograde further west towards 150-160w allowing the storms to dig and pick up more moisture.  The best chance at another big storm looks to be if/when this happens, possibly around the 19th.  Now that we are in March with a stronger sun it should be nice between each storm and then a shot of cold and snow with each.  BA

Temps today will be in the 30′s and then tomorrow we  possibly break 40 with the warm flow out ahead of the next storm.  A cold low pressure spinning in the Northeast Pacific is going to pull a warmer storm coming across the Pacific to its South up its East side.  That will push a stream of moisture through our area with a cold front on the backside.  Snow could beging falling as early as Tuesday night and last into Thursday as moisture continues off the Pacific behind the cold front.

Snowfall will not be all that heavy with the storm especially compared to what we have been seeing lately.  Totals by the Thursday morning snow report should be in the 12-18 inch range, and then several more inches could accumulate on Thursday.  The snow will start off pretty thick as snow levels come up close to lake level, and then finish off lighter Wednesday night behind the cold front as the temps drop.

Things begin to clear out by Friday and we have another little break until the next storm arrives for Sunday into Monday.  This storm looks to brings similar amounts of precip as the storm this week.  Then we get another break next Tue-Thu before another storm comes knocking on storm door next Friday.

By the end of next week it looks as if the ridge may shift South from the Bering Sea to around 160w in the Central Pacific.  This would bring the return of colder storms dropping down the East side of the ridge starting the latter half of next week and going towards mid-month.  It definitely looks like an active period for at least the next few weeks.  BA

As the cold front moves through today we will see the heaviest snow of the storm as the temps drop and snow ratios increase bringing us some super light powder.  Models show that a good amount the precip is still to fall today with 1.25-1.5 inches of liquid by Saturday morning.  Expecting  another 2-3 feet on the mountain by Saturday with storm totals of 4-5 feet by the Sunday morning snow report.

We should start to clear out Saturday morning with just some lingering snow showers and maybe even the sun poking through by afternoon.  Temps will be cold with highs maybe not getting out of the single digits on the summit and the teens at the base.  Sunday and Monday we warm up pretty quickly back into the 20′s & 30′s with brief ridging and a southerly flow ahead of the next series of storms on tap for next week.

Another cold low pressure will drop down the Pacific NW coast next week bringing the Northern branch of the jetstream with it.  The ridge in the Central Pacific will retrograde North and West allowing the Southern branch of the jetstream to come across the Pacific and merge with the Northern branch over California by Wednesday.  This will be the setup for more heavy snow measured in feet Wednesday through Friday next week.

The La Nina is weakening as we go towards spring and that may be allowing the Southern branch of the jetstream to finally get some energy.  Looking at the teleconnections the MJO is forecasted to strengthen over the Western Pacific over the next two weeks and the PNA will stay negative.  That all points to an ideal pattern for storms to continue into the Second week of March and maybe beyond.  More on that after this storm. – BA

We have another cold storm beginning to work its way down the coast off of British Columbia today.  That storm is beginning to pull in moisture off of the Pacific as it moves down the West coast.   Snow began falling this morning and it will last into Saturday.  The heaviest snow will fall tonight into the day on Friday.  We could clear out as early as Saturday morning but some models have the storm departing a bit slower and the snowshowers sticking around through the day on Saturday.

If you thought the snow with the last storm was light, wait until you see what is coming.  The cold with this storm will be as big of a story as the snowfall.  Highs in the teens on the mountains Friday and Saturday and lows in the single digits will create snow ratios of 20-30:1.  We are going to get some decent snow totals although we are only working with 1.5-2 inches of liquid.  With snow ratios of 20-30:1 throughout the storm we will have snowfall totals of 2-3 feet at the base, and 3-4+ feet on top.  I wouldn’t be surprised if Alpine hits 5 feet at the summit.

By Sunday & Monday the sun is shining and temps begin to rebound quickly back into the 20′s & 30′s as we get a Southwest flow and a weak ridge ahead of the next storm moving across the Pacific.  The pattern next week will be differen’t than what we have seen the past 2 weeks.  The ridge wants to setup near the Aleutians or maybe even further North over the Bering Sea.  So not only will there be storms coming down the coast from the North, but also from across the Pacific as they can easily pass under the new position of the ridge.

How the storms coming from the two directions interact is the question.  The storms coming from West to East across the Pacific will be able to tap into subtropical moisture so they will be strong and much warmer than the storms we have seen.  The storms coming down from the North will be cold.  It may be the perfect combination as the cold lows from the North can push enough cold into the storms from the West to keep snow levels just at or below lake level.

The models show a train of storms lined up across the Pacific next week, so the way it looks right now we should see a storm every couple of days.   I am still not seeing anything long-term that would stop this pattern.  The next two weeks should be quite stormy with normal Sierra style snow adding to our already impressive totals.  BA

The sun came back out on Sunday giving a much needed break from the 6 days straight of snowfall.  Clouds have returned today as another storm moves down off the coast of CA just missing us.  We could see a few snow showers today and tonight as the storm passes but not expecting anything more than a dusting of snow.

Then another cold and slowing moving low will move down the coast and rotate in moisture off of the Pacific starting sometime on Thursday.  This should continue into Saturday as the low sits almost stationary off the Pacific NW coast.  The models are back and forth on whether or not the low can pull in moisture from a storm coming under the ridge which is sitting around 150w in the North Pacific.  Without that happening we are looking at 20:1 snow ratios and 1-2 inches of liquid, so that should be around 2-3 feet of snow.  Depending on whether the low can tap that additional moisture and how much, we could be talking more snow.

One thing that tends to happen with storms in this kind of pattern is that the snow amounts go up as the storm gets closer like this past storm.  Areas of convection wrap into the coast that are not picked up by the models this far out. We have to keep an eye on this storm over the next couple of days.

The trend for next week over the past several days was that the ridge stays around 150w in the North Pacific and more lows come down the coast bringing more snow starting as early as next Monday.  This morning the last 2 runs of the GFS model have a different scenario.  It suggests that the ridge moves up over Alaska with a large low moving into the Gulf of Alaska forming sort of a Rex Block.  This would delay the onset of the snow next week till later in the week as the pattern develops.

If this pattern were to develop it would mean storms would be rotated into the West Coast by the low but they would be pulling in moisture from across the Pacific.  This is the type of pattern that brings in warmer storms with more liquid, although still cold enough to snow on the mountains.  A similar pattern brought us the big snows in December.Either way the pattern looks to remain active over the next few weeks with a strong -PNA and no blocking downstream to jam up the pattern.

Alpine picked up another 47 inches in the past 24 hours!  That makes for the biggest 24 & 48 hour snowfall totals so far this season.  That makes a 4 day storm total of 106 inches and brings up to around 90% of the annual snowfall average.  Interestingly we had 105 inches the week before Thanksgiving, 105 inches the week before Christmas, and now 106 the week before President’s Weekend.  And we have more snow on tap for today.

The front that stalled over us last night and brought continuous snowfall is weakening this morning, so the snowfall has gotten much lighter.  One last wave of moisture is coming onshore in Central CA and a low coming dow the coast today is going to pull the moisture Northward into Tahoe by this evening.  Expecting light to moderate snowfall today accumulating up to 6-9 inches.  Then by tonight the snow becomes heavy again and we could pick up an additional 12-15 inches.  That’s another 18-24 inches by tomorrow mornings snow report.

The snow fall should become showery as we go through the day on Saturday with only a few more inches of snow expected.  Alpine has a good shot at hitting 10 feet of snow for the 6 day storm total by Sunday.  This is all from one big low spinning in the Northeast Pacific all week that rotated in waves of moisture.  That low will move through tomorrow reinforcing the cold air for the weekend.  Sunday we will dry out and I think see the sun at some point.

We stay dry through Tuesday into Wednesday as the next storm dives down the coast and just misses us to our West.  Then another cold low will work its way down the coast Wednesday through next weekend and will rotate in more moisture.  This low will be much closer to land than this weeks low so it will be much drier, but the trend is too keep it over water so we should get enough moisture for decent snowfall.  It will be really cold as well so we will once again have high snow:water ratios.    Right now it appears that we will see several feet of snow Wednesday-Sunday.

Then the ridge in the Pacific backs up about 10 degrees to where it is this week allowing storms to pick up more moisture off the Pacific.  We should see another low setup in the Northeast Pacific and rotate in more storms.  If this pattern holds we could pick up quite a bit of snow into the first week of March.  Stay tuned…..