Ski Alpine Meadows

Tahoe Weather Update

admin — Sun, 31 Mar 2013 15:55:22 +0000

Sunday morning the snow levels should be approaching 7500 ft. and still falling. As the core of the low moves overhead later Sunday into Sunday night there should be enough cold air to get snow levels down to 6500 ft. or even close to the base. Above 7000 ft. we could see another 3-6 inches Sunday and Sunday night.

Snow showers should linger on the mountains through the day on Monday. The GFS forecast model is quicker to push the low to our East but the European model is slower and makes more sense. We could see another 1-3 inches on the mountain Monday. Under the heavier bands later Sunday into Monday morning we could see snow start to accumulate at the base of the mountain.

Total snowfall on the mountain should be around 6-12 inches by the time we tally up the totals on Tuesday morning.

We see a break and warmup quickly Tuesday and Wednesday. Then a subtropical moisture feed pushes back into the area Thursday and Friday underneath of low pressure in the Northeast Pacific. We should see more precip with several inches of snow above 8000 ft. over the 2 days.

Then the forecast models start to diverge. A cold low pressure with a cold front will begin to approach the Pacific NW for next weekend. The GFS forecast model keeps the heaviest precip to our North with lighter snows on the mountains next weekend. The deterministic run of the European forecast model brings the cold low right into Northern CA with a significant snowstorm down to lake level. The European ensemble models are in the middle with a cold front and falling snow levels with a foot or two of snow on the mountain.

We will be monitoring this event all week to see how much cold and how much precip we will get. This looks like our best chance at a significant snow since December if the European model runs are right. BA

Picked up 10″ in 24 Hrs

admin — Thu, 21 Mar 2013 18:40:25 +0000

Alpine Meadows picked up 10 inches during the day Wednesday bringing the 24 hour storm total to 14 inches up top. That was about 6 inches more than expected. The storm was a little colder and some heavy bands setup over the basin yesterday. That led to higher snow ratios on the mountain tops and more precip, which led to the higher snowfall totals.

We woke up to bluebird skies this morning and no wind. The mountain is looking good covered in a fresh blanket of snow. The weather will be nice through the weekend with a weak ridge offshore and trough over the Rockies helping to keep our temps below average in the 30′s up top and 40′s at the base. The weak ridge will move over the West Coast by Monday which should be our warmest day with temps into the low 50′s.

By next Tuesday low pressure will be slowly approaching the West coast and looks to stay offshore. We may begin to see moisture feeding into the West Coast by Wednesday. Most of the forecast models agree on light precip off and on into the last weekend of the month. This would be a couple of inches a day falling on the mountains and slowly accumulating. The forecast models then bring low pressure in over CA the last weekend of the month with heavier precip and snowfall. Overall the pattern looks unsettled but with light precip amounts starting next Wednesday.

The GFS long-range forecast keeps the precip going for about 10 days straight with some stronger storms possible the first week of April. I would like to see some more clarity the next few days from the forecast models on the precip for next week. Overall this could be the most unsettled weather pattern we have seen since December. BA

Racing is Fun and Helps You Improve Your Technique

admin — Wed, 13 Mar 2013 22:03:38 +0000

Every so often when you are at ski areas, you will see skiers or boarders on race courses. There is an avenue for you to try racing, through ski clubs that participate in League ski races in Oregon, Northern California, Southern California and Nevada. Anybody with any skiing or boarding ability, can participate in these races.

We separate racers by their age, ability and sex, so everybody has an opportunity to be competitive in their own little group of peers. Juniors and seniors can all have fun on a controlled, well groomed race course and a safe environment. We stress safety at our events and also try to move people through the courses quickly, so there is plenty of time to free ski or ride on the hill and very little time waiting to run on the race course.

There is no special equipment needed to participate, only a helmet, however, you will perform better with all-mountain or race skis or a race snowboard. Our program is very economical as most season racing fees are under $120 per year, or you can drop in for only $20 to try it out. Some clubs have first time racer programs so you may be able to try it at no cost, your first time around. As a club member, you may also receive lift ticket discounts on race days at most ski areas where we race.

At most events, you can sign up in the morning before the race, normally there will be a sign-up location somewhere visible in the ski lodge of the ski area. Be sure to ask any of the organizers of the event, and they will gladly help you out and get you signed up for some real fun. When you sign up, you will probably receive a race bib, which you will wear on the race course, so we know who is on the course.

Let the organizers know that you are new to this, and they can set you up with an experienced racer that can help you out with some tips throughout the day. Racing itself is a lot of fun, and it will help you improve your technique, plus, it is a great way to meet new friends that you can ski and board with later on. Our website is www.FWRA.com. The Championship races in April do require that racers race in at least 3 previous races.

We are always looking for new racers that want to learn or have fun, so come join us and have a great time with our racing group!

5″ of Snow Overnight and Still Coming Down

admin — Wed, 06 Mar 2013 17:38:28 +0000

It began snowing on the mountain around 10 p.m. last night. As of the 5 a.m. there was 5 inches on the mountain, but it has been snowing heavily since so there is more than that out there. 4 day totals are now up to 9 inches on the mountain.

Heavier more steady snow was beginning to push in at 6 a.m. The heaviest snow should fall this morning and then turn more showery this afternoon. Snow amounts are where we thought they would be this morning. Expecting another 4-8 inches on the mountain by tonight bringing totals to 10-15 inches.

Tonight some snow showers will linger and start to taper off. Last evening the forecast models including the GFS all jumped East with the track of the low down the coast on Thursday. That boosted snow totals through Friday. This morning they have all jumped West further off the coast. That track would bring only a slight chance of additional snow showers Thursday into Thursday night, with maybe a couple of inches on the mountain.

I’m hoping we see a correction back East in some of the runs today. If we do then we could see several more inches the next 2 days. Some of the tracks shown by the forecast models yesterday and the day before brought enough snow to double what fell today. I talked about the big spread in the forecasted totals yesterday due to the uncertainty of the track of the low down the coast.
The ridge of high pressure begins to build in this weekend with warming temperatures back into the 40′s and 50′s by early next week. The long-range models are still all over the place the second half of next week and beyond. We have to continue to watch the forecast models try to iron out the details. The setup is still there for us to get a lot of precip by the end of next week. If the ridge over Alaska is too far North and the ridge setting up in the Central Pacific is too far West, then the trough may be a bit too far off the coast, and that will keep the precip just to our North a little longer. No matter which forecast model run you are looking at they all still bring a chance of precip between the 14th-18th, so we will keep watching.
Until then enjoy the snow on the slopes today! BA

Storm Approaches on Tuesday

admin — Tue, 05 Mar 2013 18:43:55 +0000

We picked up 4 inches of snow up top from the storm on Sunday freshening up the mountain. The next storm approaches on Tuesday.

The precip may begin to fall along the crest as early as Tuesday afternoon. The heavy precip moves in Tuesday night along with plenty of cold air and rising snow:water ratios. It looks like the heaviest snow will fall in the early morning hours Wednesday with the snow turning showery by Wednesday afternoon.

The forecast models are in fairly good agreement finally with precip totals. Through Wednesday we could see 8-12 inches at the base and 12-15 inches on the mountain. The snow showers continue Wednesday night with light accumulations possible. Then on Thursday another wave moves through, with snow showers lingering into Thursday night. We could see another 2-4 inches at the base and 4-8 inches on the mountain through Thursday night.

There could be lingering snow showers Friday from wrap around moisture as low pressure moves into Nevada to our South, but we should beging to clear out. Total snowfall by Friday morning reports looks to be around 10-16 inches at the base and, 16-23 inches on the mountain.

We have a break over the weekend as ridging builds in. Next week the ridge will shift into the Gulf of Alaska. The European forecast model runs are still showing my line of thinking with the ridge retrograding Westward and a cold trough digging down the West Coast. Moisture from a low North of Hawaii heads for CA in combination with low pressure off the Pacific NW coast. That brings us snowfall for the second half of next week.

The GFS forecast model was showing this for several days but is now all over the place and currently has a ridge over the West Coast with warm weather the end of next week. We will have to watch the trends this week, but for now we have snow to deal with this week! BA

Storm Approaches on Tuesday

admin — Tue, 05 Mar 2013 18:42:54 +0000

We picked up 4 inches of snow up top from the storm on Sunday freshening up the mountain. The next storm approaches on Tuesday.

Light Precip on Sunday in Tahoe

admin — Sat, 02 Mar 2013 22:16:50 +0000

The system for Sunday will try to pull in some moisture from a low sitting East of Hawaii. The ridge is trying to build back in off the coast at the same time so the the moisture feed looks limited. We will see cooler temps and some light precip on Sunday with snow levels between 6500-7000 ft. We may see an inch or two of accumulation on the mountain.

Monday we warm again quickly ahead of the larger storm approaching later Tuesday into Wednesday. There is still a big spread on the forecast models this morning. Some bring the cold front through with 6-9 inches on the mountain, then the main low drops down from the North on Thursday with another inch or two. Other forecast models are bringing in 6-12 inches with the front Wednesday, another another 3-6 with the low on Thursday. So still some fine tuning to do.

One of the forecast models brings another storm in on the heels of this one next Friday before the ridge builds back in, dropping another 3-6 inches. It has merit as it has been consistent with this, but other forecast models are not showing the second storm.

So we have agreement on snow next week but over the weekend hopefully we will get a little more clarity on amounts. Right now it looks like a low end of 9 inches for the mountain and a high end of up to 2 feet.

The good news is that there is actually more agreement in the long-range than the short-range. A big pattern change looks to be on the way by the 12th with a cold trough setting up for the West Coast. That would return us to Winter with lots of cold air and moisture moving in off the Pacific. If we can get a good moisture feed to setup it could bring us quite a bit of snow. BA

Positive Changes in the Forecast

admin — Wed, 27 Feb 2013 19:20:58 +0000

Some positive changes in the forecast . The last several forecast model runs have come in line with the thinking of bringing a storm into the Sierra on Sunday. Also, better consensus on a storm for next Wednesday.

It looks likely now that we will see at least some snow on the mountain Sunday from a storm moving into the Pacific NW. Some of the forecast models are colder with lighter amounts of snow, with maybe a couple of inches on the mountain. Other forecast models pull in some subtropical moisture. This makes the storm a little warmer but still all snow on the mountain. The snowfall amounts are higher with the extra moisture being pulled in with up to 6 inches on the mountain.

We will have to watch over the next couple of days to fine tune precip amounts. It will be a big change after a sunny day Saturday with highs in the 50′s.

A large low pressure and trough dig down the West Coast next week bringing in more snowfall by Wednesday for the Sierra. The setup of this storm has the potential to bring us a lot of snow but right now the forecast models are not clear on precip amounts. We are still 7 days away which is a little early to talk about snowfall amounts. Right now there is a spread among the forecast models of a foot up to 3 feet for the mountain.

The long-range forecast has the ridge rebuilding along the West coast for about a week after the storm next week. If that were to happen it should be short-lived if teleconnection forecasts are correct. We should see snow return by mid-month. BA

5″ of New Snow

admin — Wed, 20 Feb 2013 21:22:40 +0000

We picked up another 5 inches on the mountain yesterday bringing the storm total to 6 inches.

The low tracked straight down the coast fooling every forecast model and forecaster yesterday. We were looking for about double what fell, but we will take snow no matter how much falls.

We will be stuck in this pattern through next Tuesday with cold lows dropping into the Pacific NW from the Gulf of Alaska. The first one tomorrow will only bring us clouds. The following two for Saturday and again Tuesday will bring us the chance of a dusting to a few inches. The ridge off the coast will be too close for them to dig down the coast and bring us significant snow.

Looking at the long-range forecast models there is a big discrepancy. The GFS forecast model puts a large low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska and aims a strong jet stream into the Pacific NW by the end of next week, with the ridge building over the West. It tries to push the jet South into our area the first weekend in March, and then again around the 6th. The Euro builds the ridge over the West the end of next week, but also builds one over Alaska with the low pressure to its South forming a Rex Block. That blocks all storms away from the West Coast from Canada down to CA. It too tries to break the jet stream through into CA around the 6th.

We will have to see if the we can get something going the first week of March.

Forecast Looks good for 12-18″ on the Mountain

admin — Tue, 19 Feb 2013 17:59:26 +0000

Tomorrow is storm day as the anticipated snow will finally arrive. Expecting light snow as early as tonight but the heaviest snow will be Tuesday, with snow showers lingering through Tuesday night. The forecast still looks good for 6-12 inches for the base, and 12-18 inches on the mountain.

The unsettled pattern is going to continue for the next week but this first storm looks like it will be the strongest. A very weak system will drop down from the North on Thursday and we may only see a few flakes with this one or a dusting. The ridge will be moving closer to the coast keeping the strongest part of the storms into the Pacific NW.

The next system drops down from the North Saturday. This one has some more moisture but the exact track is uncertain as it drops down to our East over Nevada. If the track is far enough West we could pick up several inches of snow. Each of these systems dropping down from the North will reinforce the cold air.

There will be another system dropping down from the North next Tuesday. Right now it looks like another cold and weak system, but the ridge may retrograde enough for it to pick up a bit more moisture. After that the GFS forecast model has another potential system dropping in Thursday and then builds in the ridge off the coast keeping the storms to our North. The Europrean model brings the ridge in by the middle of next week cutting off the storms. We may have another break in the action for week 2 but overall still expecting March to be a much stormier month than January and February. BA