The pattern change to colder and wetter is coming next week right after the grand finale this weekend with temperatures in the 50′s. Tomorrow we will be in the 5 day range of the first storm of what will hopefully be many starting next week. That is the range I will usually start to consider talking about possible snowfall amounts with the storms.
The question will be how much wetter. The latest forecast model runs have the center of the ridge in the Pacific a bit further West for the Tuesday storm allowing it to pick up a bit more moisture. The way the pattern looks to be setting up the storms won’t be pulling in a lot of moisture off the Pacific but they are cold which will help with accumulations.
Right now the Tuesday storm looks like a moderate storm, in the range of what we saw back on January 12th, which was several inches to just over a foot. Still early to talk snowfall but that gives an early idea. Then there is another system that will drop in Thursday, again the weekend of the 23rd, and may keep going into the following week.
Right now looking at the long-range forecast guidance it looks like the ridge may setup a bit closer to the West coast after Tuesday keeping us in towards the back side of the trough over the West. That will keep the storms on the cold and weaker side. I will be excited to talk about the possibility of more than one storm over the course of a week! BA