Alpine Weather: Lots of snow this weekend

0 Comments 18 March 2011

Alpine picked up another 16 inches on top Wednesday morning with the last band of heavy snow that pushed through.  That brought the storm total to 39 inches, the 7 day total to 58 inches, and the season total to 636 inches.  Alpine  averages 450 inches a season so we are now at 141% of the annual snowfall average and winter is far from over.

We had a break on Thursday but the next storm is ready to dive in today.  This storm will be a much colder storm with a drier & fluffier snow.  The main storm pushes into the Tahoe basin around noon and the heavy snow should last into the evening.  With the cold air with this storm and moist flow behind the front I would expect snow showers to last through Saturday.  Total liquid by Saturday is 1-1.5 inches.  That is less than the last storm but with colder temps and higher snow ratios we will do pretty good.  Looking for 1-2 feet at the base and 2-3 feet on top by Saturday evening.

The main upper low responsible for spinning the storm in on Friday will move down the coast slowly over the weekend.  This will keep snow showers going off and on Saturday and Sunday with several more inches possible.  Then the main low pushes in another heavy wave of snow Sunday afternoon into Monday and then the main low pushes over us Monday night.  This second round of snow looks more impressive with model liquid amounts of 2-2.5 inches which would be 3-4 more feet.  By Tuesday morning we should have 4 day totals of around 3-4 feet at the base and 4-6+ feet on top.

If you thought that was the end you are wrong.  The next storm is ready to roll in on Wednesday as another cold low dives down from the Gulf of Alaska.  This storm is being shown by most models as slowing as it approaches and then slowly push inland Wednesday-Saturday.  Looking at snow totals this far out is sketchy but models have enough liquid to bring around 3-4 more feet by Saturday.  Another cold storm is behind that for next weekend.

With the ridge sitting out in the Central Pacific over the next 10 days we will continue to have a trough along the West Coast with cold storms continuing to dive in and below average temps.  Long-range models show a possible break the last few days of the month before more storms could move in the first week of April.  Looking at teleconnections they look more favorable for storms as we go out 2 weeks.  MJO is also circling around and strengthening so we could have one more blast of big storms in the beginning of April.  Stay tuned … BA

BA The Weather Guru - who has written 30 posts on Ski Alpine Meadows.
The Weather Guru specializes in long range storm forecasting and snowfall predictions for the Tahoe Basin. He studied meteorology at Kean University and has been tracking snowstorms for over 20 years. He considers himself a Hobbyist that is passionate about weather and obsessed with big snowstorms.

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